Italy: Mario Draghi has said he wouldn’t be in power without the 5-Star. (File)
Roman:
Prime Minister Mario Draghi’s government is on the verge of collapse after the Five Star Movement said it would not take part in a parliamentary confidence vote on a cost-of-living aid package scheduled for Thursday.
Here are the possible scenarios after the Senate vote, which could cause political turmoil in the country.
Vote, back to business
The government has called a vote of confidence, a vote of great political weight. However, the parties could try to defuse the crisis by withdrawing the petition and instead having a vote on each measure in the package. This would allow 5-Star to register its disagreement with a specific element of the bill – the construction of a giant incinerator in Rome – without boycotting the government outright.
It is not clear whether this mechanism can defuse tensions within the alliance and possibly simply delay the crisis.
Same leader, same partner
President Sergio Mattarella could ask Draghi to conduct a new confidence vote in parliament next week. If 5-Star decides to return to the ranks of the government, the national unity coalition will remain in place, albeit battered and brutal.
Former prime minister and five-star leader Giuseppe Conte has left open the possibility of discussions with Draghi. However, 5-Star’s support is dwindling and many party members are pushing for full cuts with the government hoping to shore up the party’s fortunes from opposition gangs.
Same premium, less partners
Draghi called for a confidence vote and garnered the support of the remaining coalition parties, including the far-right Coalition, the center-left Democratic Party (PD) and a sizable group of former 5-Star politicians split with Conte last month. The former head of the European Central Bank will have a smaller, but still viable, majority in both houses of parliament.
However, Draghi has said he will not be in power without the 5-Star, and both the PD and the Coalition have signaled they will not support another government if the 5-Star boycotts the Senate vote on Wednesday. Five.
Even if Draghi and the two parties change their mind, this operation will upset the internal balance of the government, as the coalition will be tilted to the right and demands from the remaining groups could cause new turmoil.
Early voting
If Draghi resigns and refuses to head a new administration, the president can dissolve parliament and call early elections to take place in late September or October. Draghi can continue as president. care, or Mattarella could have someone else take charge of the remaining weeks of the legislature.
However, Italy has not held an election in the fall since World War II, with the last months of the year traditionally spent collecting the budget.
An early vote carries other risks. Italy still needs to meet numerous legislative and bureaucratic deadlines this year to secure billions of euros in European funds, and these deadlines could be missed without a fully functioning government.
New top
In an effort to avoid early elections and financial turmoil, President Mattarella may try to assemble another unity government calling for an institutional figure to lead a new coalition until the elections are over. taking place in the first half of 2023.
However, it’s hard to imagine different elements of Draghi’s government rallying around a new character.
(Except for the title, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from an aggregated feed.)
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